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Know the probability.
Know the fair price.
See the market.

Edgity is a quantitative analytics engine for football, tennis and NBA. A deterministic model — not an AI guess — calculates the probability of every outcome, converts it to a fair price, and shows you how the market differs. What you do with that is your call.

Every new account starts with a 14-day Pro trial — no payment required.

model_vs_market live sample

Model probability

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Fair odds

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Market odds

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Market implied

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Difference

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// how the model works

Four steps between a fixture and a probability.

The same pipeline runs on every match across all three sports. No tipsters, no vibes — a transparent chain from raw data to a number you can interrogate.

Model the match

A Poisson + Dixon-Coles core, blended with xG, form and league-specific calibration, estimates the probability of every outcome.

Convert to a fair price

The probability becomes a fair odds figure with no bookmaker margin in it — the price the outcome would carry if nobody took a cut.

Strip the margin from the market

Bookmaker odds carry an overround of several percent. Edgity removes it, so the market's real implied probability sits next to the model's on the same scale.

Show the difference

Most of the time the two are close. Sometimes they aren't. Edgity shows you by how much, along with the context behind the model's view — and often the honest read is NO BET.

// what you see

Not just a probability. The whole picture.

Every market on every match carries the same five numbers, so you always know what the model thinks and how that compares to the price in front of you.

Model probability

58.0%

Fair odds

1.72

Market odds

1.75

Market implied

55.1%

Difference

+2.9pp

One number doesn't tell the whole story. Behind the probability sits everything the model read on the way there:

recent form xG home / away splits team strength lineups & absences league calibration market price live match data

// coverage

Three sports. One analytical standard.

Each sport gets its own tuned model and live in-match view — but the same disciplined math underneath. Coverage follows each competition's calendar.

⚽

Football

Probability, fair odds and market comparison across 50+ leagues, with goal-timing, form and lineup awareness.

1X2 · Over/Under · BTTS

🎾

Tennis

Serve, return, breaks and set pressure, with a live in-match momentum read across ATP and WTA.

Match winner · Live momentum

🏀

NBA Season starts October

Player roles, pace and game-level probability, calibrated on real games — data over assumption.

Totals · Spreads · Pace

// live analytics

The match changes. Your numbers change with it.

Edgity keeps the pre-match model running against live match data, so the probability you see at the 35th minute reflects what has actually happened on the pitch — not what was expected before kick-off.

live_stats 35'

58%POSSESSION42%

9SHOTS4

3ON TARGET1

4CORNERS1

LIVE PROBABILITY — HOME

62%

pre-match 48% · +14pp on the run of play

Events move the number

Goals, red cards and penalties are re-priced immediately, not smoothed over.

The run of play counts too

Shots, shots on target and territory feed the live read — a goalless 35 minutes of pressure is not the same as a goalless 35 minutes of nothing.

Tennis, point by point

Serve, breaks and set pressure update as the match unfolds, with a seven-statistic momentum read.

// ai assist

It explains. It doesn't tip.

Every match comes with an AI read that tells you why the numbers look the way they do — the matchup, the momentum, the context behind the model. It never hands you a bet to place. The math produces the number; the Assist helps you understand where it came from.

Reads the matchup

Aggressive against defensive, derby chaos, a bunker game — it names the kind of match before a ball is played.

Tracks live momentum

In tennis, a seven-statistic read on serve, breaks and set pressure. In football, lineup-aware context the moment the XI drops.

Grounded, not guessing

Bound to the model's own numbers with anti-hallucination rules — it explains the data, it doesn't invent it.

◠‿◠ LIVE AI ASSIST

Why does the model rate the home side higher than the market here?

◠‿◠

Two inputs drive it. The home attack averages 1.85 goals per game at this ground, against an away defence conceding 1.62 on the road — that split is wider than the aggregate table suggests.

The away side is also running roughly half a goal ahead of its xG over the last five matches, which the model treats as regression risk rather than form.

// why it's different

The numbers don't always agree with the market. That's the point.

Most products sell you confidence. Edgity gives you a number and the reasoning behind it. Roughly two times out of three the honest read is that there's nothing interesting here — and it says so.

~65%

of matches return NO BET.
The model doesn't need an opinion on everything.

Real math, not AI guessing

A deterministic statistical model you can reason about — not a language model improvising a number.

Probability, not predictions

See what the model calculates and compare it with the price available to you. The decision stays yours.

Honest about uncertainty

Calibration and shrinkage are built in. When the data is thin, the model widens instead of pretending.

// transparency

Measured, not claimed.

A probability is only worth anything if it holds up. Edgity's outputs are checked against what actually happened: when the model says an outcome is 75% likely, it should land about three times in four. Calibration is tested continuously and corrected when it drifts.

ProbabilityWhat the model calculates

Fair oddsThe same number as a price

Market comparisonMargin stripped from both sides

Model contextThe inputs behind the view

AI explanationGrounded in the model's own data

// available now

See what the numbers say.

Full access to every sport, every market and the AI Assist for 14 days.

No payment required to start.