Model probability vs. market odds: what the reference odds mean

By Gergely Gyüre, Edgity · Published 29 October 2026

Short answer: the percentage on an Edgity match page is the model’s own estimate. The reference odds next to it are the market’s price for the same outcome, shown for comparison. They are two separate views, and they don’t have to agree.

Two views of the same match

The Edgity model calculates its probabilities from its own data: team strength, recent form, home and away records, expected goals, and confirmed line-ups once they are known. It doesn’t copy the market.

The reference odds are the bookmakers’ price for each outcome. Edgity shows them so you can see both views side by side.

Turning odds into a percentage

Decimal odds convert to a percentage with one division: 100 ÷ odds. Odds of 2.00 correspond to 50%, odds of 4.00 to 25%.

There is a catch. Add up all outcomes of a market this way and you get more than 100%. With odds of 1.90 on both sides of a two-way market, each side is 52.6%, together 105.3%. The extra 5.3% is the bookmaker’s margin. To compare fairly, you scale the numbers back to 100%, which here gives 50% each.

Model odds: the same idea in reverse

Next to the reference odds, the match page also shows model odds: the model’s probability turned into odds, with no margin. A 40% outcome has model odds of 2.50 (100 ÷ 40). The page sums it up as “Ref. odds = market price · Model odds = fair price, no margin.”

When the two disagree

Most of the time the model and the market are close. When they are far apart, there are two broad explanations:

the model may be missing something the market knows, such as a late injury, team news or motivation;
or the market may not have reacted yet to something in the data.

A big gap is a reason to look closer, not a reason to be more confident. That’s why Edgity marks a large deviation from the market, and why it drops the label (“Most Likely”, “Likely”) when the model and the market pick a different favourite. You still see the number; only the label goes.

What Edgity doesn’t do with the odds

It doesn’t link to bookmakers or take bets.
It doesn’t treat the market as the “right answer”. The model has its own view and is measured by calibration: whether its 60% outcomes happen about 60% of the time.
Its AI Assist doesn’t convert the odds into probabilities or argue with them; it explains the model’s numbers.

The takeaway

Read the percentage as the model’s opinion and the reference odds as the market’s. When they agree, you have two views pointing the same way. When they don’t, slow down and find out why.