Football probabilities, explained

Short answers to the questions behind the numbers. No tips, no jargon.

• What does a 60% probability actually mean?

  Not a promise and not a guess: what a percentage says about a match, and how to check it.

• Why three 60% picks don’t make a 60% combo

  Each leg looks likely. Together they aren’t. The maths, with a table you can check.

• What AI Assist does (and what it doesn’t)

  An explainer for the numbers, not a tipster. What it sees, what it refuses, and a real example.

• Combo Lab: build your own combo and see its real chance

  Pick today’s matches and see the combined chance before you decide anything.

• What is xG, and what can it not tell you?

  Expected goals measures chance quality. Useful, but not the whole story.

• Model probability vs. market odds: what the reference odds mean

  Two different views of the same match, and how to read them side by side.

• Why most matches have no clear favourite

  Most matches are open. Showing that honestly is part of the job.

• How Edgity’s model works

  Expected goals for each team, a probability for every scoreline, and every market from there.

• How to read an Edgity match page

  What each part of the match page shows, and the order to read it in.

• Live view: what the live stats show

  Live stats, the Pressure chart and Next Goal, and how to read them during a match.